The Failure of the 28-Article Ceasefire Plan for Ukraine: How Diplomatic Efforts Continue to Falter

Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action

The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".

Nocturnal Warfare

As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.

Persistent Threats

Soon after, a automatic firearm engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.

Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.

Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.

Tactical Assessments

It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.

Current Realities

Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.

While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.