A United Ireland Plebiscite Cannot Turn Into 'A Repeat of Brexit', Experts Alert

Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.

That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."

New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.

"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. They authors two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.

Debates range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."

Request for Broader Dialogue

Westminster should engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."